The Corona Virus – a pandemic, but should we be scared?
- williamdare2
- Mar 9, 2020
- 5 min read
I would like to begin saying that this article was written on the 4th of Match 2020. Things change quickly so this article might become out of data, the CDC and WHO are your best options to stay updated and informed. I am also not a medical professional, I am only reporting what I have read. I am not an authority on the virus so again I urge you to look to the CDC and WHO.
The Virus
According to the World Health Organisation the first reports came on the 31st of December 2019, and since then the corona virus disease (COVID-19) has dominated the news and has become a global health concern. SARS CoV-2 is the name of the virus. There was supposedly some concern at the WHO about naming it SARS CoV-2 as they didn’t want to unnecessarily scare by putting SARS in the name. the diseases simply come from the same, rather large family of viruses.
Symptoms are largely similar to the flu. Fever, tiredness, coughing, sore throat etc. Whilst these symptoms are typically mild they can develop and make people more seriously ill, with the elderly and people with previous conditions such as heart disease being at particular risk. Studies suggest at the moment that the virus is primarily transmitted via respiratory droplets, spread when an infected individual coughs. Full information is available on the WHO website and I have linked it at the base of this article.
Scary?!
Whenever a new virus appears and spreads rapidly, especially across the planet it’s natural for us to be concerned. It’s appropriate that we take the necessary steps to deal with it. However there is an unfortunate trend we see in media where in its easy to quickly jump for attention grabbing and scary titles, as that’s what sells. As things change so rapidly when it comes to these kind of events, a level of restraint is necessary. It can be quick to rush to report news that seems to suggest the worst. This is irresponsible and can be dangerous
Consider the title of this piece from the New York times from the 12th of February;
“New Cases Spike in Hubei Province: As the number of the sick and dead surged in Hubei Province, China’s Communist Party ousted the leader at the centre of the outbreak.”
The article relates to the expansion of how medical professionals in Hubei province are diagnosing cases. Previously they were relying on testing kits to confirm cases, whereas now they are going for the clinical diagnosis of, if a patient has the symptoms and has been exposed to the virus they conclude that they are infected. This resulted in the number of new cases rises from 1638 the day before to 14,840. The number of deaths reported at the time also jumped from 94 to 242. (this sounds less scary when you consider this actually means a large drop in the percentage of deaths relative to the number of infections).
The change in tactic may be related to a shortage of testing kits. It has also caused concern over how it disrupts trends and may make it more difficult to track the disease. Whilst there has been more clarity in the news as the days go by, I think it does show our propensity to throw out eye catching headlines and stoke the fears and anxieties of the public. I am not trying to argue that the virus is nothing to worrying about, simply that we should be careful of presenting updates in ways that are misleading.
I saw another article that capitalises on the anxiety surrounding the virus in the Evening Standard with the title “Major UK Outbreak Starting – Official” in huge bold font on the front page. Eye catching to say the least and no doubt good for sales, but it comes across as almost apocalyptic.
Even Natgeo can be seen using terms like “bloodstorms” and “honeycomb lungs” in their articles, based on hypothesis and information from similar types of diseases. The problem being they don’t know that these are facts as we don’t have the information and thus is it problematic to put information out there saying this.
John Allen Paulos has written a a great article on how numbers can often be unhelpful when deprived of their context. He summarises the problem of panic inspiring headlines, stating ““It’s a short-term, and short-sighted, approach that’s difficult to resist, especially when people are afraid and the authorities are taking draconian actions”.
I don’t fault people for seeing the news and numbers and being frightened. However unnecessary panic has real consequences, such as the lack of face masks for medical staff, spikes in hand sanitizer prices, toilet paper shortages in Australia etc. Therefore I believe we should urge restraint when posting and writing on this subject. We can deal with the seriousness of the pandemic in an effective way whilst keeping those at risk as safe as possible, but only if we don’t succumb to unnecessary panic and fear mongering.
Things to consider
Perhaps most important to remember is that most cases are mild. There is a roughly 2% lethality rate, which is lower that similar corona virus outbreaks such as SARS (10%) and MERS (30%), and this largely from people with heart and lung conditions, with the elderly being particular vulnerable. Compare this again to the 60% lethality rate of the H5N1 influenza (Bird Flu) which caused its own stir.
Now This doesn’t mean that there couldn’t be a large death toll if there is a huge number of infections, but it isn’t in of itself a catastrophically deadly virus. But the information and data will change rapidly as we learn more about the virus, and daily articles and news stories will fall victim to misinformation.
I would to finish up this article with some information from the WHO and CDC.
WHO:
· 80% of cases are mild and the patients recover without special treatment. 1 in 5 will need hospital care
· Whilst risk of infection depends on the location, “For most people in most locations the risk of catching COVID-19 is still low.” (from the FAQ on their website, under “how likely am I to catch COVID-19)
· “Remember, a mask should only be used by health workers, care takers, and individuals with respiratory symptoms, such as fever and cough.”
CDC:
· “People in communities where ongoing community spread with the virus that causes COVID-19 has been reported are at elevated, though still relatively low risk of exposure.”
Lastly, there is a great YouTube channel called Dr Mike, who is a doctor and medical professional (Thus more qualified than I to give information) who gives great weekly updates on the virus. To quote him, “Alert, not anxious”
Sources
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/18/opinion/coronavirus-china-numbers.html- excellent article by John Allen Paulos. It breaks down how we look at the numbers, what impacts them, and why they might shift drastically in a concerning way and why it isn’t as scary as it may look.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/12/world/asia/coronavirus-china-covid-19.html- an attention grabbing, and dare I say verging of fear mongering title and opening “New Cases Spike in Hubei Province: As the number of the sick and dead surged in Hubei Province, China’s Communist Party ousted the leader at the center of the outbreak”.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0QHWhjbe5fGJEPz3sVb6nw- Dr Mike’s youtube channel is a good way to stay updated in a quick way, although it is US based.
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